JeffKirvin.net

I’d hoped to avoid this New Year chestnut, but everyone else (engadget,
Brighthand) is doing it and they’re getting it wrong. So I figured I’d
throw a few things out there for 2005.

Windows Mobile 2005 will finally appear in devices 3Q, but no one will
care. The new version, code-named Magneto, will be announced at CES, but it
will still be in beta until late spring, then take a while for vendors to
tweak(break) it and release devices. It will sport a better version of
ActiveSync and slightly better Office applications (charting in Pocket
Excel, full screen in Pocket Internet Explorer), but not good enough to
matter. Windows Mobile is an increasingly obvious placeholder that
Microsoft doesn’t really care about. It’s just there to mark time until
UPCs become affordable and Windows XP can make the transition to mobiles.

UPCs will pick up steam, but only a little. Despite the fact that they
actually break Microsoft’s spec for Windows XP Tablet PC Editon, these
almost pocket-sized devices are actually the right size for tablet PCs.
This boost in portability will make devices like the Sony VAIO U750p and
the OQO better sellers than previous tablet PCs, but they’re still going
to be niche devices. $2000 is still too much to pay for what these machines
deliver.

RIM will surprise everyone by taking over the smartphone market. The new
7100 model is a scary good combination of touch-dialable phone keypad and
thumb keyboard. While I personally detest predictive text, the RIM “two
letters per key” keyboard is a neat innovation and the 260×240 screen is
plenty big enough for email, the only thing RIM is really good at. The
Blackberry line will not appeal to folks that use Treo 650s or iPAQ 6300s
as the computers they are, but it will further entrench with the business
market, patent or no patent.

PalmOne will stay the course, refusing to release Cobalt-based devices but
continuing to provide excellent PDAs for “normal” people. When confronted
by complaints about Monty Python and Benny Hill way back in the day, a BBC
exec said, “There are some people we want to offend.” This attitude will
continue at PalmOne, who makes devices for everyday users while blatantly
ignoring the gadget geek market. Their sales will continue to grow in spite
of sniping by the geek press.

HP will release a UPC, after which they’re going to start neglecting the
iPAQ line. This will probably be late in the year, for the holiday market.
This will resemble the iPAQ 4700, but run Windows XP and sport a 40GB hard
drive. It will probably be a better device than Sony or OQO’s models, and
will be the darling of the holiday season. The “many sizes fit none” iPAQ
market will start to shrink noticeably as device after device is quietly
discontinued.

Someone will release a portable video recorder based on either Windows
Mobile or PalmOS. Geeks will flock to this hard drive based device in
droves.

Samsung will release a PalmOS Cobalt smartphone in 1Q. Hopefully this will
finally put an end to the “Cobalt is vaporware” smack.

PalmSource will make a serious move for the “feature phone” market. While
everyone’s looking at PalmOS for Linux, PalmSource will quietly ink deals
with carriers to use less powerful phones with the PalmOS user interface
and basic PIM applications. While these devices will not be able to run
third party PalmOS applications, they will provide the basic functionality
of say, a Zire 31, on phones in the same price ranges as today’s camera
phones. In retrospect, this will be seen as the rebirth of PalmOS.

Tapwave will continue quietly making smaller, lighter, better game consoles
than the Nintendo DS or Sony PSP. Let’s face it, they’re bricks and can’t
play as many games as the Zodiac. Tapwave is an excellent candidate to
build the PalmOS-based PVR, by the way.

We won’t see any PalmOS for Linux devices in 2005, but ‘06 is going to be a
transformational year for mobile tech. More later.